Private sales have silently become a driving force in the auction house landscape. Amid geopolitical uncertainty and a sustained downturn in public auction results, these discrete transactions have steadily risen, shoring up the bottom line of major auction houses and subtly reshaping their operational models and client relationships. Since 2020, this shift has marked a strategic pivot, reflecting both evolving collector preferences and deteriorating market conditions.

Although private sales have historically increased during public auction market downturns, this most recent surge appears more significant and less transient than previous cycles. High-value private sales carry an average price of $6.2 million, and account for a substantial share of total auction turnover. In 2024, private sales accounted for 24% of Phillips, Sotheby’s, and Christie’s cumulative total turnover, totaling $3.0 billion, up 4% from 2020 and 18% from 2022¹. While the initial rise in 2020 was largely a short-term response to the disruption of live auctions during the COVID-19 pandemic, the current uptick appears more structural rather than a temporary adaptation to crisis. What was once regarded as a secondary offering has now become a central strategy for auction houses adapting to post-pandemic expectations.

This evolution is occurring against the backdrop of a broader market contraction. In 2024, Sotheby’s and Christie’s reported overall sales declines of 23% and 6%, respectively, with public auction sales falling even more sharply due to geopolitical uncertainty and fewer trophy lots hitting the auction block. In this environment, many consignors are opting for the discretion and stability of private sales, prioritising confidentiality and longer lead times over unpredictability of the auction block, even with the increased prevalence of guarantees. There is also the perception that private sales can command higher prices or at least avoid the reputational and financial risks of public failure. For auction houses, private sales offer more stable revenue and often higher margins, thanks to dual commissions and lower overhead costs. As a result, major auction houses now operate more like elite private dealers connecting buyers and sellers year-round, rather than relying solely on the spectacle of the auction room.

This trend extends beyond Sotheby’s, Christie’s, and Phillips. In 2020, private sales by these three accounted for 94% of the total private sales reported in the UBS x Art Basel Report. By 2024, that share dropped to 66%, indicating significant growth in private transactions in the broader auction house realm. As this model proves resilient, more auction houses are incorporating private sales into their core strategy.

The key question remains: Is this surge in private sales a new normal for auction house operations, or simply a response to a sustained difficult market environment? Will private sales continue to ebb and flow with macro conditions, or has the model fundamentally shifted?

Even in public auctions, the traditional drama is diminished. With the majority of high-ticket lots now under guarantees, whether third-party or minimum price, the outcome is often pre-negotiated. In effect, many of these lots function more like publicly traded private sales, as key potential buyers are approached prior to the sale. In the New York spring sales, for example, several high-ticket lots were sold with guarantees in place, while other highly anticipated works, namely the $30 million Warhol and the $70 million Giacometti failed to find buyers, highlighting the fragility of demand even in a highly managed environment. These mechanisms erode the competitive excitement that once drove record-breaking bids.

Amid these shifts, private sales are no longer a quiet supplement for the auction business, rather a central pillar of its strategy. As public auctions face mounting pressure from economic volatility, geopolitical uncertainty and a scarcity of high-profile consignments, private transactions offer a quieter, more controlled path forward. They provide discretion for sellers, stability for auction houses, and bespoke experiences and financing packages for buyers, all while preserving market activity beneath the surface. Whether this shift proves to be a structural evolution or a cyclical response remains to be seen, but for now private sales are cushioning the downturn in public auctions and reshaping the model of how art is exchanged.

_{^{1. Data collected by the author for this article}}
_{^{Cover image credit: Sotheby's X (twitter) post on 28 Oct 2015}}

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